Live market scan from the Polymarket Gamma API. Kelly-optimal position sizing. Weather-market flagging. Paper trading only — you enter your own probability estimates, and no real money moves here.
| Market | YES Price | Liquidity | Hours Left | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Click "Scan Now" to fetch live Polymarket data | ||||
Polymarket resolves by AIRPORT stations (LaGuardia, Love Field), not city centers. Checking ensemble forecasts (GFS+ECMWF+ICON+JMA) for the exact station can reveal gaps between the forecast and the market price. A gap is a signal to investigate — never a guaranteed edge.
1) Base rate historical data. 2) News in last 6h. 3) Whale wallet positions. 4) Crowd cognitive errors. Need 3/4 to pass before sizing.
f* = (p×b - q) / b, then ×0.25 for safety. Never bet >25% of bankroll. Negative EV = $0 bet. Proven mathematically optimal for long-run growth.
Take profit at 85% of move. Exit on 3× volume spike. Kill stale positions (24h, <2% change). The discipline: capture most of the move and move on rather than holding for the last cent.